Joe Miller: Cliffhanger

With Alaska's polling closed, "write-in" is leading with 41% of the vote, followed by Joe Miller with 34% and Scott McAdams with 24%. Based on simple math, McAdams is automatically eliminated from the equation, leaving "Write-in" and Miller.

Murkowski is One out of 160 Write-In Candidates

Recall that the Alaskan courts ruled that sheets with write-in candidates names could be present at polling sites, despite contravening established law. When Ian Lazaran of Conservatives4Palin (C4P) covered the story, over 56 angry Alaskans filed to have their names added to the write-in list. Today Fox News reports the number of write-in candidates as being 160.

The 41% lead for "Write-In" covers all 160 Write-In Candidates

The 41% lead established by "write-in" encompasses all of these candidates - Murkowski among them - be it the 56 C4P reported last week or the 160 being reported today. Working with 56 candidates, Murkowski must lead the other 55 write-ins and Miller to capture 35% of the vote, or Miller wins. Putting it another way, if more than 6% of the vote went to any one or more of the other 55 write-in candidates, Miller has won. The odds are even more staggering with Murkowski among a field of 160 write-in candidates. If 6% or more of the vote goes to the remaining 159 write-ins, Miller is the winner.

Write-Ins to be Counted November 10, 2010 in Juneau

As Joe Miller delineates in today's mailing, historically 5% to 6% of Alaska's write-in ballots are disqualified from counting as a valid vote. This factor combined with the raw numbers works strongly in Miller's favor. The prior referenced Fox News report indicates that the write-in ballots will be counted next Wednesday in Juneau. The write-in soap opera may well devolve into a pitched legal battle.

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Across the country, it was a late night. In Alaska, we weren’t left with winners or losers. We were left with a cliffhanger. Before this election can be declared over, ballots must be counted. We are extremely optimistic that we will ultimately win. There are already signs of an approaching legal battle. Time is urgent! In order for the true conservative to win this race, we need your continued support today. Please click here to make a donation. In short, this campaign is not over! “Write-in” is not a winner. Regardless of how my opponents – including the media — want to spin this, a winner hasn't been declared yet, and can’t be declared yet. Previous write-in campaigns in Alaska have demonstrated that as much as 5 to 6% of returned ballots have not met the standard to be counted as a valid vote. As with any write-in campaign, the burden of execution rests with the candidate whose name is not printed on the ballot. Candidates who mount a write-in campaign opt for an uphill battle. At this point, without a single write-in ballot counted, Lisa Murkowski has no claim on a victory. To complicate the matter, the Division of Elections has yet to adequately explain how a ballot will be marked in favor of a candidate. The current standards are extraordinarily ambiguous. We trust that officials will conduct the hand count with propriety and consistency. That's why we need your support. With Murkowski's legal team of Washington insiders, we need to be prepared! Help us keep up the fight! Kathleen and I deeply appreciate your support and help over the course of this campaign. Please keep it up as we see how this cliffhanger turns out. As we learn more, we’ll keep you updated. Joe Miller Candidate, U.S. Senate Paid for by Joe Miller for US Senate © 2010 All Rights Reserved.